Why is China Threatening Taiwan? Real Reasons Behind Rising Tensions – Ep. 1

(Feat. Election Day, Economy, Independence, Xi Jinping, Hong Kong, Asia, Geopolitics, history, Political Party, DPP, KMT, TPP)

China’s recent military maneuvers around Taiwan—encircling the island with warships and jets—have caught the world’s attention, raising the question: Why now? What’s behind this sudden surge in aggression? Let’s break down the motivations driving China’s bold actions and explore what this could mean for Taiwan and the global stage.

1. Taiwan was not originally inhabited by Chinese people.

2. The island was home to Austronesian-speaking Pacific Islanders, the indigenous people, similar to those known for the Moai statues on Easter Island.

3. The first foreign power to colonize Taiwan was the Netherlands.

4. In 1624, after the Ming Dynasty blocked trade, the Dutch East India Company set up a fortress and settlement in the Tainan area (southern Taiwan) – Dutch Territory colored in Pink

5. Using Taiwan as a base, the Dutch imported silk and porcelain from China and exported these goods to Japan and Europe.

6. In 1626, Spain arrived and settled in Tamsui, in northern Taiwan. (Spanish Territory colored in Green)

7. A war between the Dutch and the Spanish over Taiwan ensued, with the Dutch ultimately taking control of the entire island.

8. In 1644, the Ming Dynasty in China fell to the Qing Dynasty.

9. Ming loyalists, led by pirate leader Zheng Zhilong, continued resistance centered around Nanjing.

10. Zheng Zhilong had visited Japan, where he fathered a son, Zheng Chenggong, with the daughter of a Kyushu samurai named Tagawa Matsu.

11. Matsu’ family were known as Wokou, or Japanese pirates.

12. Despite fathering a child with Matsu, Zheng Zhilong later married the daughter of a subordinate, leaving Matsu to raise their son in Japan.

13. Ten years later, Zheng Zhilong returned, married Tagawa Matsu officially, and brought her and their son back to China.

14. Zheng Zhilong and his son Zheng Chenggong led a movement to restore the Ming Dynasty, posing a significant threat to the Qing.

15. The Qing responded by imposing a maritime ban (Haijin), restricting coastal trade.

16. The Haijin (maritime ban) policy involved evacuating the coastal areas within 50 kilometers of the shoreline.

17. The Qing government forced residents to move inland, destroying homes, ships, and farms along the coast.

18. Without access to coastal resources, Zheng Zhilong’s forces began to weaken.

19. Zheng Zhilong was eventually captured and executed by the Qing, while Matsu committed suicide in the face of defeat.

20. Zheng Chenggong and his remaining forces retreated to Taiwan, intending to use it as a base to rebuild and retake the mainland.

21. In 1662, Zheng Chenggong launched a war against the Dutch at Fort Zeelandia in southern Taiwan.

22. Despite losing the mainland, Zheng still commanded a large fleet and 25,000 soldiers.

23. The Dutch eventually surrendered, allowing Zheng to take control of Taiwan.

24. Along with Zheng’s troops, many military families and Ming refugees migrated to Taiwan.

25. Those who migrated with Zheng Chenggong to Taiwan became known as Benshengren (native Taiwanese).

26. Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) traces its roots back to these Benshengren (the native Taiwanese.)

27. The fact that Zheng Chenggong’s mother was Japanese helped reduce resistance to Japanese rule during the later Japanese occupation.

28. In the 1900s, a second wave of Chinese migration occurred.

29. After losing the Chinese Civil War, the Kuomintang (KMT) government and its military, officials, and refugees fled to Taiwan.

30. These people are known as Waishengren (mainlanders) and form the base of today’s KMT opposition.

31. The Waishengren used military power to suppress the native Taiwanese and solidify their political control.

32. The Qing Dynasty never placed significant value on Taiwan.

33. After the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing official Li Hongzhang referred to Taiwan as “a barren land” and easily ceded it to Japan.

34. Japan didn’t have to fight for Taiwan—the Qing gave it up without much resistance.

35. Even Mao Zedong, the founder of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), said in 1947, “We support Taiwan’s independence and its right to establish its own country.”

36. Over thousands of years of history, China has only ruled Taiwan for 211 years under the Qing Dynasty. The current Chinese Communist regime has never controlled Taiwan.

37. This is the basis for Taiwan’s argument that it should be considered an independent nation, separate from China.

38. Taiwan argues that the CCP has never ruled the island and that after brief Qing rule, Taiwan was ceded to Japan, meaning Taiwan and China are not the same.

39. China’s counterargument is that the people of Taiwan are descended from Chinese immigrants, not indigenous people, and are therefore Chinese.

40. Today, Taiwan’s political system consists of two main parties: the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), representing native Taiwanese (Benshengren), and the Kuomintang (KMT), representing mainlanders (Waishengren).

41. Since Benshengren make up 70% of Taiwan’s population, the DPP is currently the ruling party.

42. The DPP, made up mostly of native Taiwanese, advocates for independence, arguing that Taiwan has always been separate from China.

43. The KMT, however, believes they will eventually reunite with China under their leadership.

44. Interestingly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has supported the KMT, despite their past conflict.

45. Both the CCP and KMT believe in “One China,” although each claims it will lead the reunification.

46. When the KMT is in power, relations with China are relatively calm, but when the pro-independence DPP takes control, tensions with China increase.

47. Public opinion in Taiwan is increasingly leaning toward independence.

48. The Hong Kong crisis showed many in Taiwan the dangers of Chinese authoritarianism.

49. On May 1, 2023, China revised its military conscription laws.

50. The new law allows retired soldiers to be recalled to their original units if needed.

51. Essentially, it is similar to the U.S. calling reservists back into active service.

52. The conscription age limit was extended to 24 for college graduates and 26 for those with graduate degrees, increasing recruitment of educated individuals.

53. In Taiwan, this was seen as a sign that China is preparing for war.

54. Taiwan’s presidential election was held on January 13, 2024.

55. Taiwan’s elections, held every four years, are comparable to both U.S. presidential and congressional elections happening simultaneously.

56. A major feature of this election was the rise of the People’s Party, breaking the traditional two-party dominance of the DPP and KMT.

57. Many voters in their 20s and 30s, frustrated with both the DPP and KMT, are supporting the People’s Party, giving it over 50% in polls.

58. The People’s Party was founded in 2019 by Ko Wen-je, the former mayor of Taipei.

59. Positioned as center-right, the People’s Party focuses on practical economic policies and appeals to moderates, emphasizing “Taiwan’s interests first.”

60. The party has overwhelming support from voters under 40, who see it as a pragmatic alternative to the traditional parties.

61. In the month before the election, China sent reconnaissance balloons over Taiwan 23 times.

62. These are similar to the balloons China claimed were civilian weather balloons that accidentally flew over the U.S.

63. Along with the balloons, China has sent military aircraft and naval vessels around Taiwan, heightening tensions.

64. On January 11, just two days before the election, 15 Chinese military aircraft and 4 warships entered Taiwan’s airspace and waters, threatening the island.

65. China seems intent on influencing Taiwan’s election through military intimidation.

66. As Chinese threats increased, the KMT’s candidate saw a surge in support, with polls showing DPP at 31.4%, KMT at 31.1%, and the People’s Party at 25.2%.

67. And then, election day finally arrived.

Alphazen Insights

As we reflect on Taiwan’s intense January 2024 election, where China’s aggressive tactics loomed large, it’s clear that the story isn’t over. Fast forward to October, and China’s political and economic pressures are resurfacing, reminding us of the fragile balance in the region.

Just as we’re about to witness more shifts in China’s stance, it’s worth looking back at how Taiwan navigated its own election earlier this year. The past holds lessons for what’s to come—so stay tuned, because Episode 2 is on the horizon, and it’s set to be just as impactful.