Why China Suddenly Surrounds Taiwan ? – Ep.2
(Feat. 2024 Presidential Election, Chinese Dream 中国梦, Independence Tension, Diplomacy, Lai Ching-te, Xi Jinping)
67. And then, election day finally arrived.
68. In Taiwan’s recent election, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) received 40.1%, the Kuomintang (KMT) got 33.5%, and the People’s Party gained 26.5%. Lai Ching-te from the DPP won, which frustrated China’s efforts to influence Taiwan.
69. After the election, Song Tao, head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, made a strong statement: “The motherland will eventually reunify, and this is inevitable. It’s a necessary part of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and it’s the shared goal and duty of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.”
70. The global markets quickly focused on the phrase “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”
71. The “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” refers to the idea of the “Chinese Dream (中国梦 (Zhōngguó Mèng).”
72. The “Chinese Dream 中国梦” is Xi Jinping’s vision for China’s future.
73. Essentially, the “Chinese Dream” reflects China’s goal to surpass the U.S. and become the world’s top power by 2050, which coincides with the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.
74. The “great rejuvenation” also refers to China’s desire to return to its historical status as a global superpower, which it held in ancient times.
75. One of Xi Jinping’s major challenges is that he hasn’t achieved significant economic success, and it looks unlikely that he will anytime soon.
76. Past Communist leaders could point to strong economic growth as their achievements, but the trade war with the U.S. has made it harder for Xi to claim similar economic success.
77. This led to the rise of “wolf warrior diplomacy,” a strategy aimed at stoking nationalism and calming public dissatisfaction.
78. “Wolf warrior diplomacy” refers to China’s aggressive and confrontational style in dealing with other countries, sometimes called “wolf diplomacy.”
79. This approach means China will strongly retaliate against any country that criticizes or harms its interests.
80. The goal of this strategy is to build an image of a powerful China, especially when facing internal challenges like the ongoing real estate crisis.
81. China’s concept of “national interests” in its foreign policy has also shifted.
82. Instead of focusing on national interests, China’s foreign policy now prioritizes the interests of the Communist Party.
83. In the past, China’s top national interests were:
- Protecting its political system and national security.
- Safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- Ensuring stable and sustainable economic development.
84. Now, China’s top interests are:
- The leadership of the Communist Party and the socialist system.
- Safeguarding national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and reunification.
- Ensuring stable and sustainable economic development. These interests must not be violated.
85. The interests of the Communist Party are now prioritized, with the reunification of Taiwan at the top of the list.
86. The biggest change in China’s foreign policy is that protecting the Communist Party’s power and reuniting Taiwan are now the main goals.
87. Xi Jinping has already secured control over Hong Kong, and if he brings Taiwan under Chinese control, he could claim full reunification.
88. Taiwan is now seen as the last piece in China’s reunification efforts and has become a core national interest.
89. As a result, Taiwan’s recent election has been a setback for China’s plans.
90. The newly elected president of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is a strong supporter of Taiwan’s independence.
91. Despite difficulties in attracting centrist voters, who were concerned about China’s threats, Lai won due to the People’s Party taking votes away from the KMT.
92. The DPP enjoys strong support from native Taiwanese, who make up over 60% of the population, and has a solid 40% base of loyal supporters.
93. Lai’s 40% of the vote came mostly from this loyal base, while the People’s Party took votes from the KMT, leading to his victory.
94. After winning, Lai Ching-te continues to focus on his stance of “anti-China, pro-independence.”
95. Lai has long said, “Taiwan is a sovereign state, and we must remain independent from China. Taiwan cannot become another Hong Kong or Tibet.”
96. During his presidential campaign, Lai softened his language, replacing “independence” with “maintaining the status quo” to appeal to moderate voters, but his core beliefs remain the same.
97. Lai Ching-te is also known for his close ties with Japan.
98. He frequently visits Japan, highlighting the importance of Taiwan-Japan cooperation and building strong relationships with Japanese leaders.
99. China believes that under Lai’s presidency, Taiwan will strengthen its alliances with the U.S. and Japan, further surrounding China.
100. While the DPP won the presidency, younger voters have clearly shifted their support to the People’s Party.
101. Although Lai Ching-te won the presidency, the DPP does not control the legislature, and the People’s Party now holds the balance of power.
102. The People’s Party candidate, Ko Wen-je, finished third but did much better than expected, securing 26.5% of the vote, far above the predicted 17%.
103. Ko is now a key player in a parliament where the KMT holds 52 seats, the DPP holds 51, and the People’s Party holds 8 crucial seats.
104. In the U.S., there is growing support for preventing Taiwan from falling under China’s control.
105. If the U.S. had to choose between supporting South Korea or Taiwan, the sentiment is now increasingly in favor of Taiwan.
106. Even if North Korea were to take over South Korea, the U.S. sees Japan as a natural defense shield.
107. However, If Taiwan falls to China, it opens up the Pacific to Chinese control and gives them access to vital shipping routes.
108. This situation is similar to the Acheson Line of 1950, which excluded South Korea from U.S. protection, leading to North Korea’s invasion. This time, Taiwan is included in the U.S. defense strategy.
109. On October 1, 2024, 17 Taiwanese celebrities working in China posted congratulatory messages on WeChat to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China.
110. These celebrities shared messages like, “Best wishes to you, my motherland!” and “Taiwan must return to the arms of the motherland.”
111. Taiwanese media and the public were outraged by these comments from celebrities working in China.
112. President Lai Ching-te responded, “It’s heartbreaking to see Taiwanese artists working under pressure abroad,” offering sympathy for these entertainers.
113. On October 5, during Taiwan’s National Day banquet, President Lai strongly refuted the entertainers’ remarks, saying, “We must remember that Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country. We owe it to those who sacrificed for our democracy, freedom, and human rights.”
114. Lai emphasized that Taiwan, the Republic of China, existed before the People’s Republic of China, so it’s wrong for Taiwanese to call China their “motherland.”
115. Taiwan views the Wuchang Uprising on October 10, 1911 (Double Ten Day), as the start of its establishment as a republic.
116. However, China argues that the Republic of China ceased to exist after the Kuomintang was defeated by the Chinese Communist Party.
117. On October 8, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson warned, “No matter what Lai Ching-te says or does, nothing can change the fact that Taiwan belongs to ‘One China.’ Any move toward independence will lead to disaster.”
118. During his Double Ten Day speech, President Lai responded, saying, “The People’s Republic of China has no right to represent Taiwan.”
119. Lai also said, “As president, my mission is to protect our sovereignty from any invasion or annexation.”
120. This led to China suddenly starting military drills around Taiwan.
121. The Chinese military announced it would conduct “forceful reconnaissance and drills” around Taiwan, using its army, navy, air force, and rocket forces.
122. These actions by China were expected.
123. At the 2023 Chinese Communist Party Central Committee meeting, there was an important but less noticed announcement about Taiwan.
124. China has always said it would use force to unify Taiwan if it declared independence.
125. Even though the DPP is in power, they avoided declaring independence because of this threat.
126. But now, China has changed its position.
127. At the Central Committee plenary Session, the conditional phrase “if Taiwan declared independence” was omitted.
128. This means China could attack Taiwan whenever it believes it’s necessary, even if Taiwan doesn’t declare independence.
129. China has also added the goal of unifying Taiwan to the Communist Party’s constitution.
130. China is politically and militarily prepared, waiting for the right moment to justify an attack.
Alphazen Insight
When deadlines are looming and results aren’t showing, stress kicks in, and bad decisions often follow. And if a leader is surrounded by nothing but “yes-men,” the odds of making a serious misstep get even higher. Not just talking about Xi Jinping here, of course!
As we approach the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the stakes couldn’t be higher. With global tensions flaring—Israel, Iran, the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan—plus the financial war against inflation, the next president needs to be sharp. It’s not about which party you like; it’s about which candidate has real answers to these challenges. Don’t vote with your heart—vote with your head!
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