Which Company Will Thrive Under a ‘Complete’ Donald Trump Era?

(Feat. GEO Group, CoreCivic, Congress, Supreme Court, Orange is the New Black, Private Prison, 2024 Presidential Election, Donald Trump, Republicans, Law and Order, Three strikes, Stock Analysis, Invest, Mexico, California, Texas)

Trump will be back in the White House, Republicans will control both the House and Senate, and a conservative-leaning Supreme Court is on standby. It’s the ultimate “Complete Trump Era”—or, as some are calling it, “Complete Trump Plus.”

This political landscape doesn’t just affect policies and governance; it’s a game-changer for certain companies and industries. A few key figures have already staked their support—think Elon Musk, who cheered on Trump’s election, and even Argentina, which hinted at hopes for stronger ties. But beyond individuals and governments, some businesses could see major boosts in a Republican-dominated, Trump-led government.

So, which companies might thrive in this bold, new Trump Era? Here’s a look at some of the industries that could rise to the top.

1. In California, when storms disrupt phone lines, repair crews in orange uniforms often arrive to fix them.

2. Surprisingly, these workers are frequently inmates.

3. California is among 37 U.S. states where businesses can legally employ inmate labor.

4. Approximately 1 in every 160 Americans is currently incarcerated in prison.

5. For every 100,000 people, the U.S. imprisons 629, compared to UK’s 133, France’s 90, German’s 69, Japan’s 37, China’s 119, Russia’s 326, and Brazil’s 381.

6. The U.S. leads the world in incarceration, with over 2.17 million people held in more than 5,000 facilities nationwide.

7. A significant driver of these high numbers is drug-related offenses.

8. This surge began in 1971 under President Nixon, whose policies increased incarceration rates.

9. Nixon’s “law and order” stance initiated an era of mass imprisonment, which President Reagan extended through the War on Drugs.

10. Under President Clinton, the “Three Strikes” law imposed life sentences for repeat offenders, accelerating prison numbers

11. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have since contributed to higher incarceration rates.

12. The prison population jumped from 350,000 in the 1970s to 1.17 million by the 1990s, now reaching over 2.17 million.

13. A significant portion of inmates are Black Americans.

14. While Black people make up about 14% of the U.S. population, they represent over 70% of the male prison population.

15. Statistics reveal that 1 in 3 Black men in their twenties has been incarcerated at some point.

16. While inmate numbers have climbed, the high percentage of Black inmates has been a consistent trend.

17. One historical factor behind this pattern is the 13th Amendment.

18. In 1865, this amendment abolished slavery but included a significant exception.

19 It allowed forced labor as punishment for convicted crimes.

20. This provision led to the widespread incarceration of Black Americans for minor offenses to supply cheap labor, especially after the Civil War.

21. Presidential promises of “law and order” often signal to white voters a crackdown on Black communities, bolstering support.

22. Overcrowding led to the creation of private prisons in 1983 to accommodate surging inmate numbers.

23. CoreCivic, a major private prison operator, now manages 61 facilities across 20 states.

24. Currently, about 10% of U.S. inmates are housed in private prisons like those operated by CoreCivic.

25. Private prisons are popular due to their cost-saving advantages.

26. On average, private facilities save 24% in costs compared to state-run prisons.

27. States contracting with private prisons often require minimum savings, which these facilities consistently meet.

28. States like Florida mandate a 7% savings, while Texas, Kentucky, and Mississippi aim for 10%, often achieving 24% savings.

29. Housing a single inmate in the U.S. costs about $70,000 annually.

30. Private prisons receive roughly 90% of this amount from the government, keeping the difference as profit.

31. Prisoners earn as little as $0.25 per hour for eight-hour shifts, boosting profits.

32. Inmate labor is a key factor in attracting factories back from Mexico to states like California and Texas.

33. High occupancy rates are essential to private prison profits.

34. Since these prisons are paid per inmate, keeping them full is crucial to maximizing earnings.

35. Private prison companies don’t just manage facilities; they also offer an array of related services.

36. From designing prisons to managing inmate transport, supplying electronic monitoring, and even selling inmate meals, these companies diversify profits.

37. GEO Group is another major player in the private prison market.

38. The GEO Group operates facilities in the U.S. and abroad, including the UK, Australia, and South Africa, making it one of the largest global operators.

39. The stock performance of private prison companies like GEO Group often correlates with Republican control and inversely with economic growth.

40. For instance, GEO Group’s stock spiked after Trump’s 2016 election but declined under the Democratic administration, only to rise again as Republicans regained the House.

41. This pattern reflects a logic where policies that increase prison populations, or economic downturns, make private prison stocks more attractive.

42. When incarceration rates rise, private prisons benefit from full occupancy and cheap labor, boosting profits.

43. With Trump’s return, many investors expect a surge in prison populations, potentially boosting private prison stocks.

Alphazen Insights

When Trump first took office in 2016, GEO Group’s stock shot up as his administration got rolling. Then, when Democrats took over, the stock took a hit but bounced back as Republicans regained control of the House.

Now, with Trump back in the Oval Office and Republicans holding the House, Senate, and a conservative Supreme Court, GEO Group’s stock has jumped from $7 to $25, closing in on its peak of $35 during Trump’s first term. Back then, it was Trump with just the House; this time, it’s Trump with the full power package.

It’s almost like the private prison industry has become the hotel business in disguise—always banking on high occupancy. And with Trump’s return, there are many wondering just how fully he’ll “book out” the nation’s prison beds this time around.