Breaking Down the Russia-Ukraine War: Part 1 – Key Updates
(Feat. Vladimir Putin, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, U.S., USSR, Stalin, Crimea, World War III, Missiles, ICBM, NATO)
The Russia-Ukraine war just reached a dangerous new level. Ukraine fired U.K.-made missiles into Russian territory with President Biden’s approval, striking a major target in Kursk. In retaliation, Russia launched an ICBM, hitting critical infrastructure in Dnipro. Foreign ambassadors have fled Moscow, and tensions are at a breaking point.
This bold act comes at a critical time—just weeks after Trump’s election victory and before his new administration takes power. Biden’s decision to escalate the conflict directly contradicts Trump’s non-escalation stance, setting up potential clashes over U.S. foreign policy. The move raises questions about the global implications of this sharp divergence in strategies as power shifts in Washington.
Here’s a summary of recent developments, starting, as always, with some history.
1. Long ago, the heart of Russia was in Kyiv, now the capital of Ukraine.
2. In 1240, the Mongol army invaded Russia, leaving Kyiv in ruins and forcing Russia to relocate its center to the northeast.
3. This new center eventually became Moscow, now Russia’s capital.
4. This shared history is why Russians often see Ukraine, with its former capital in Kyiv, as a younger sibling with the same cultural roots.
5. Since both nations originated in Kyiv and later diverged, Russians have a strong sense of shared history and cultural unity with Ukraine.
6. Ukraine remained part of Russian territory until after World War I, when the collapse of Russia led to the territory being divided between the Soviet Union and Poland.
7. In 1932, a major crisis erupted in the Soviet-controlled Ukrainian region.
8. Stalin implemented policies converting Ukraine’s rural areas into collective farms.
9. Farmers were forced to surrender their livestock and crops to the state-run farms, relying on distributed rations to survive.
10. Under this communist policy, all land, livestock, and produce were owned by the state, with the government distributing output equally.
11. This system left farmers with no personal incentives since there were no additional rewards for their efforts.
12. When the policy was announced, farmers rushed to consume or sell their private goods before they could be confiscated.
13. Potatoes and salt sold out within two days, and farmers began slaughtering cows, pigs, and other livestock for food.
14. At the same time, two consecutive years of extreme famine struck the region.
15. With no livestock for farming, no food to survive, and poor harvests, farmers faced complete devastation.
16. This led to the death of 10 million people, out of a total population of 50 million in Ukraine.
17. About 20% of the population starved to death.
18. Urban areas were less affected by the famine compared to rural regions.
19. This is why rural Ukrainians hold such strong resentment against Russia, which they see as inheriting the legacy of the Soviet Union.
20. Over time, Ukraine’s urban regions leaned pro-Russian, while rural areas were strongly anti-Russian. The political divide resulted in alternating pro- and anti-Russia governments.
21. In 2010, pro-Russian politician Viktor Yanukovych became president, which escalated tensions.
22. After taking office, Yanukovych prosecuted Yulia Tymoshenko, a strong political rival, on charges of embezzlement related to gas negotiations with Russia. She was sentenced to seven years in prison.
23. Tymoshenko negotiated to purchase Russian natural gas at a variable price 30% lower than the international market rate, instead of a fixed price.
24. When global gas prices skyrocketed, the variable-price deal ended up being far more expensive than a fixed-price contract, leading to her decision being impeached.
25. The fact that her charge was based on a negotiation error sparked controversy, with not only Russia but also Western human rights organizations condemning it as political persecution.
26. Investigations spread to other officials, including the Minister of Internal Affairs and the Minister of Economy. The former was sentenced to four years in prison, while the latter fled to the UK.
27. Yanukovych amended the constitution to increase his power, granting himself the authority to appoint and dismiss cabinet members without parliamentary approval.
28. Despite solidifying control, Yanukovych’s presidency was marred by corruption and economic mismanagement.
29. In 2012, Ukraine was ranked as one of the three most corrupt countries globally, alongside Brazil and Colombia.
30. Facing an economic crisis, Ukraine was forced to seek financial aid as its foreign reserves dwindled.
31. Ukraine had two potential lenders to turn to: the EU and Russia.
32. EU offered $20 billion in loans, while Russia proposed $15 billion, but the EU’s aid came with conditions.
33. Ukraine, having failed to repay previous loans from the IMF, faced demands from the EU to reduce government spending, including cutting pensions.
34. Cutting pensions was politically explosive, as it would have caused a massive drop in public support for the government.
35. However, Russia’s aid had no such strings attached and included promises to lower the price of natural gas.
36. Russia’s primary goal was to maintain a pro-Russian government in Ukraine, which is why the terms were so favorable.
37. In December 2013, Yanukovych decided to accept Russia’s loan offer.
38. When Ukraine chose Russia’s loan, massive protests erupted in Kyiv and across western Ukraine, regions strongly opposed to Russia.
39. These protests, known as the Euromaidan Revolution, were pro-European demonstrations. “Euro” referred to Europe, and “Maidan” means “square” in Ukrainian.
40. By February 2014, the police escalated the situation by opening fire on protesters with automatic weapons, leading to intensified clashes.
41. What began as protests against pro-Russian policies turned into a movement to overthrow the authoritarian regime.
42. Ultimately, Yanukovych and his inner circle fled to Russia, leading to a change in government.
43. A new anti-Russian government was established in Ukraine.
44. With the pro-Russian government ousted and an anti-Russian regime in place, Russia didn’t stay idle.
45. For centuries, Crimea had been a favorite summer retreat for Russian czars, nobles, and Soviet officials due to its mild climate.
46. In 1954, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea, which was part of Russia, to Ukraine.
47. At the time, Khrushchev needed the support of the Ukrainian Communist Party during the power struggles that followed Stalin’s death.
48. Since both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union, this transfer wasn’t considered significant at the time.
49. However, when the Soviet Union collapsed, and Russia and Ukraine became separate nations, the situation grew more complicated.
50. Crimea was home to Sevastopol, a naval base and popular resort town.
51. Even in the coldest month of February, Sevastopol’s average temperature is around 37°F (3°C), and in July, it’s a comfortable 73°F (23°C).
52. The port’s waters never freeze, making it a key base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet—until Crimea became part of Ukraine.
53. During Ukraine’s separation from the Soviet Union, Russia and Ukraine agreed to lease Sevastopol to Russia until 2042.
54. While Russia could still use the port, the fact that its only warm-water port was now under Ukrainian ownership continued to irk Moscow.
55. After Yanukovych was ousted and a pro-Western government came to power, Ukraine raised Sevastopol’s lease fees by 400% before the agreement expired.
56. It was like quadrupling the rent on a lease before the contract even ended.
57. Ukraine’s parliament also passed a law revoking Russian’s status as a second official language.
58. This law had allowed a language spoken by at least 10% of a region’s population to be recognized as a secondary official language.
59. In Crimea and eastern Ukraine, Russian speakers far outnumbered Ukrainian speakers, making this decision highly controversial.
60. The removal of Russian’s official status reinforced Putin’s belief that action was necessary to protect Russia’s interests.
61. Russia moved military forces into Crimea, where the majority of residents were ethnic Russians.
62. A referendum was held among Crimea’s residents on whether to join Russia.
63. Official results showed that 96% of voters supported annexation by Russia, leading to Crimea’s incorporation into Russian territory.
64. While some reports suggested the referendum was forced and unfair, the demographic makeup of Crimea made the outcome plausible.
65. Following the vote, Crimea declared independence as the Republic of Crimea and was then annexed by Russia, but this led to unforeseen challenges for Putin.
To Be Continued in Part 2.
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