Rare Earth Wars Update – Part 1: Myanmar’s Geopolitical Challenge
(Feat. Rohingya Crisis, Burma, China, U.S., India, Japan, Bangladesh, Election, Aung San Suu Kyi, Religion, Buddhism, Islam, Muslim, Military Coup, Semiconductors, Metal, IT, Energy, Infrastructure, History, Asia)
Rare earth elements are the backbone of modern technology—and the fight for control is reshaping global power dynamics. In this update, we dive into Myanmar’s pivotal role in this geopolitical tug-of-war, unraveling its complex history and the challenges it faces today.
Curious about the backstory? Stick around. Already know it? Jump ahead to the next Episode 2.
The Historical Context of Myanmar
1. The story of Myanmar starts with British colonization.
2. Britain turned Myanmar into a major rice production hub.
3. British officials, however, labeled the Burmese (the people of Myanmar) as too rebellious and unmotivated to efficiently manage the rice plantations.
4. To solve this, they brought in large numbers of Indian workers, known for being industrious and compliant with government control.
5. Among these migrants were the Rohingya people, a Muslim group.
6. The Rohingya, a Muslim minority, were allocated land to farm in Buddhist-majority Myanmar.
7. This land was forcibly taken from the native Burmese by the British.
8. With Britain’s support, the Rohingya treated the native Burmese poorly, like slaves, which created deep resentment.
World War II and the Shift in Power
9. During World War II, Japan occupied Myanmar.
10. Japan, seeking local support, returned lands taken from the Burmese by the Rohingya.
11. In response, Britain armed the Rohingya, seeing them as a potential force against Japan.
12. Instead of fighting the Japanese, the Rohingya turned on the unarmed Burmese, massacring civilians and reclaiming their land.
13. In 1942, the Rohingya killed 20,000 Burmese in Rakhine State alone, destroying Buddhist temples and killing monks.
14. The violence had religious undertones, as the Rohingya, being Muslim, targeted Myanmar’s Buddhist identity.
Post-Independence Fallout
15. After World War II, Britain left, and Myanmar gained independence in 1948.
16. With independence came a wave of revenge from the Burmese majority against the Rohingya.
17. The newly formed government began to marginalize and expel the Rohingya, demanding they return to India.
18. India, however, showed little interest in helping the Rohingya.
19. By then, the region of India the Rohingya originally migrated from had become part of the new Muslim-majority nation of Bangladesh.
20. India directed Myanmar to seek assistance from Bangladesh.
21. Bangladesh, already overpopulated and impoverished, refused to accept the Rohingya.
22. Left with no other options, the Rohingya were forced to remain in Myanmar under worsening conditions.
Military Coups and Political Struggles
23. After independence, Myanmar’s political landscape was dominated by Aung San’s Anti-Fascist People’s Freedom League, which won the 1948 election.
24. However, after Aung San’s assassination, the military seized power in a coup.
25. This 1988 coup marked the rise of the current military regime.
26. Despite widespread protests against the coup, the military brutally suppressed opposition.
27. Over 3,000 people were killed, and thousands more disappeared.
China’s Growing Influence
28. The military feared China’s ambitions to use Myanmar as a gateway to the Indian Ocean.
29. To counterbalance China, Myanmar sought closer ties with India and Japan.
30. The military believed that alliances with a nuclear-armed India and a wealthy Japan could offset Chinese influence.
31. However, the 2008 global financial crisis weakened Japan’s ability to support Myanmar.
32. When the global financial crisis hit in 2008, Japan was too busy dealing with its own problems to help Myanmar with financial support.
33. India’s limited military power also proved ineffective in challenging China.
Pivot to the U.S.
34. In search of alternatives, Myanmar turned to the United States.
35. President Obama showed interest in improving relations with Myanmar.
36. To gain U.S. support, the military regime made democratic concessions, including releasing Aung San Suu Kyi and holding elections.
37. In the 2015 elections, Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won decisively.
38. However, the military had already secured constitutional safeguards to retain power.
39. The 2008 constitution reserved 25% of parliamentary seats for the military, giving it veto power over constitutional amendments.
40. Key government positions, such as the defense minister, were also controlled by the military.
41. Constitutional amendments required a 75% majority, making reforms nearly impossible.
The 2021 Coup and Chinese Intervention
42. Despite the military’s grip on power, the 2020 elections resulted in a landslide victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, National League for Democracy (NLD).
43. The NLD secured 83% of the contested seats, giving Aung San Suu Kyi control of 62% of the total seats in parliament.
44. After the win, Aung San Suu Kyi pushed for changes to the constitution to remove the military’s guaranteed 25% of parliamentary seats.
45. The military had been hoping for U.S. support to counter China’s influence, but global outrage over the Rohingya genocide made Western backing a nonstarter.
46. Public sentiment in Myanmar was so strongly anti-Rohingya that the military had no viable path to change course.
47. The military and pro-democracy groups, surprisingly, shared one common stance: support for the continued persecution of the Rohingya, making it an untouchable issue.
48. Amid this chaos, China saw an opportunity to step back in.
49. After a visit from President Xi Jinping, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi traveled to Myanmar on February 21, 2021, signaling a renewed push to strengthen their ties.
50. China announced that it understood Myanmar’s “unique circumstances” regarding the Rohingya ethnic cleansing and pledged massive infrastructure investments in the country.
51. The Myanmar military decided to shift its allegiance from the U.S. to China.
52. On February 1, 2021, the military dropped any pretense of democracy and staged a coup, returning to full control.
53. The military justified the coup by claiming election fraud, specifically citing interference with Rohingya voting rights.
54. This reasoning doesn’t add up, considering the military itself had been leading the persecution of the Rohingya, effectively blocking their ability to vote.
55. Strategically, Myanmar is located at a crucial gateway, connecting the Indian Ocean and the Malacca Strait to China, and serving as an entry point for trade from Europe and the Middle East.
56. Myanmar’s Kyaukphyu Port holds significant geographic advantages, making it a key location for trade and logistics.
Kyaukphyu’s Strategic Importance
57. Kyaukphyu started as a small fishing village but has deep waters suitable for large ships.
58. Using Kyaukphyu, China can bypass the U.S.-controlled Malacca Strait, ensuring a direct supply route from the Indian Ocean.
59. Xi Jinping’s deal with Myanmar focused on building the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor and upgrading Kyaukphyu Port.
60. China began constructing Southeast Asia’s largest oil and gas terminal at Kyaukphyu, set to finish by 2025.
61. The $9.2 billion project is funded with Chinese loans, giving China 70% control of the port upon completion.
62. China is also building pipelines connecting Kyaukphyu to Kunming, stretching over 480 miles (770 km) for oil and 640 miles(1,025 km) for gas.
Energy and Military Benefits for China
63. These pipelines will deliver approximately 424 billion cubic feet (12 billion cubic meter) of natural gas and around 160 million barrels of oil to China each year.
64. China is also constructing highways and railroads along the pipeline routes to improve connectivity.
65. Kyaukphyu’s 100 feet deep (30-meter-deep) waters can support aircraft carriers, making it a potential naval base.
66. Controlling Kyaukphyu would strengthen China’s energy security and allow easy deployment of naval forces in the Indian Ocean.
67. China could station large military ships, including carriers and nuclear submarines, to counter India’s influence.
Myanmar’s Internal Chaos
68. After the 2021 coup, pro-democracy protests escalated into civil war.
69. Nearly half of Myanmar’s land is now under rebel control as public support for the military dwindles.
70. The rebel groups face a major challenge: they aren’t united.
71. Many ethnic minorities seeking independence have temporarily joined forces with pro-democracy groups.
72. However, pro-democracy groups are mostly Bamar, while rebels are ethnic minorities, creating divisions.
The Military’s Struggle for Power
73. The Myanmar military also has its own set of challenges.
74. The military declared a state of emergency after the 2021 coup to justify its rule.
75. Under the constitution, this can only last two years, with elections required by August 2023.
76. To maintain control, the military changed election rules to secure its 25% guaranteed parliamentary seats.
77. Parties must now re-register, and those deemed “terrorist organizations,” like Aung San Suu Kyi’s party, are banned.
78. Only the military-backed USDP meets the strict criteria to register in most districts.
79. Despite these measures, the military fears new parties could gain public support due to its unpopularity.
Delaying Tactics
80. The military claims elections cannot happen until a population census is completed.
81. Censuses take months, giving the military time to delay elections and try to rebuild public support.
82. Amid these developments, China’s stance toward the Myanmar military started to evolve.
To be Continued in Part 2 …
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