Is China’s stock market… secretly rigged to rise?
Who’s really pushing the “Buy” button before the bell?
And why does it feel like Wall Street wishes it had this kind of power?
While U.S. stocks are riding the emotional rollercoaster — up, down, and sideways — China’s market is oddly steady.
But that stability might not be from real strength… it might be from backstage hands holding it all up.
You’re about to discover what’s really happening behind China’s recent market rally — and why it’s not your average supply-and-demand story.
Table of Contents
Political Shifts and Market Signals
1. In March 2025, I wrote about the reasons behind China’s rising stock market.
2. Here’s a quick summary of the key points:
3. China’s annual “Two Sessions” meetings began on March 4, 2025, and lasted for a week.
Rare Earths, Real Stakes: Why Future Depends on Magnets (feat. Dysprosium, China, EVs & Deep Sea Mining)
China’s Power Shake-Up: Xi Jinping’s Inner Circle (feat. Liu He, Rocket Force, and Secret Scandals)
How One Overnight Move Flipped Global Tech and Trade – Ep. 2 (feat. Apple, iPhone, Trump, The Art of the Deal)
How One Overnight Move Flipped Global Tech and Trade (feat. Trump, Apple, Tariffs, iPhone, and India)
While the U.S. and China Clash, Vietnam Cashes In (feat. Tariffs, Treasury Yields, Global Strategy)
Musk vs. Trump’s Trade Team: Tariff War, Power Plays & Policy Battle (feat. Elon Musk, Peter Navarro, US–China decoupling)
Xi’s Embrace of Private Enterprise
4. This time, President Xi Jinping’s statements drew more attention than the meetings themselves.
5. Since the 2018 trade tensions with the U.S., China had been promoting state-owned enterprises over private ones.
6. This policy aimed to strengthen state firms while reducing the influence of private companies.
7. Many private firms transitioned into state-owned entities, with leadership changes in companies like Alibaba.
8. On February 17, 2025, Xi met with leaders of China’s major tech companies.
9. He emphasized the significant potential of the private economy and encouraged entrepreneurs to drive shared prosperity.
10. Xi signaled a shift back to encouraging private enterprises to lead economic growth.
11. He instructed all party committees to effectively implement policies promoting private economic development.
12. Six prominent entrepreneurs spoke during this meeting.
13. These included leaders from Huawei, BYD, New Hope Group, Will Semiconductor, Unitree Robotics, and Xiaomi.
Economic Stimulus and Market Reforms
14. Their participation highlighted the government’s endorsement of these companies.
15. Although Alibaba’s Jack Ma attended, he didn’t speak, indicating lingering constraints.Financial Times
16. The agenda for the National People’s Congress on March 24–25 included discussions on promoting the private economy.
17. China has prepared a series of economic stimulus measures for this year.
18. The fiscal deficit target has been revised from 3% to 4%.
19. This increase signifies a commitment to aggressive economic support, even at the expense of higher deficits.
20. While promoting the private economy and stimulus measures is crucial, it’s a delicate topic given past statements.
Stock Market Strategies and Guidelines
21. This context explains the significant announcement to focus on AI development, positioning DeepSeek as a model example.
22. In the stock market realm, discussions emphasized the strict implementation of the “New Nine Rules.”
23. These guidelines aim to upgrade China’s capital markets through enhanced supervision.
24. Under these rules, companies with cumulative cash dividends over three years averaging less than 30% of net profits will be subject to special management.
25. Such companies will face biannual audits.
26. If dividend performance falls short, major shareholders will be prohibited from selling their shares.
27. Additionally, state-owned enterprises and financial institutions are being guided to increase their stock holdings.
28. In 2025, market capitalization became a metric in evaluating state-owned enterprises.
Liquidity Boosts and Real Estate Incentives
29. This move signals that both private and state-owned companies must pay attention to their stock prices.
30. Comprehensive policies to boost the stock market are now being implemented.
31. The government has announced plans to inject liquidity into the market.
32. A special ultra-long-term government bond worth 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued to stimulate domestic demand.
33. In the real estate sector, transaction taxes have been eliminated or significantly reduced.
34. For homeowners selling their only property after five years, the 20% capital gains tax is waived, and the acquisition tax is reduced from 3% to 1%.
Market Dynamics and Government Interventions
35. A brief commentary: China’s economy operates on a “release and tighten” model.
36. When the economy slows, the government relaxes controls; when it overheats, it tightens them again.
37. Since Q4 of last year, there’s been a shift back to “release,” suggesting a short-term bullish trend in China’s stock market.
38. About a month after my article, Bloomberg reported unusual patterns in China’s stock market.
39. The report suggested that the government might be artificially supporting stock prices.
40. After a sharp drop in early April, the Shanghai Composite Index rose for eight consecutive days, marking the longest streak since October.
41. This rise wasn’t organic; financial institutions and funds were reportedly mobilized to prop up the market.
42. Significant capital inflows occurred in the last 20 minutes of trading sessions, preventing negative closes.
43. The following chart illustrates this phenomenon.
44. The top chart shows the Shanghai Composite Index over time.
45. If you look at minute-by-minute data from April 15 to April 17, 2025, something odd stands out. On days when stocks seemed to be closing in the red, a sudden surge of buying happened around 2:40 p.m.—just 20 minutes before the market closed. Coincidence? Probably not.
46. The bottom chart shows where that last-minute buying came from: mainly two major ETFs—Huatai-Pinebridge CSI 300 and China AMC SSE 50.
47. With the government pulling strings behind the curtain, China’s market seems to have a built-in safety net—at least for now.
48. After all, when someone’s always willing to buy at a higher price… stocks go up. That’s the oldest rule in the market playbook.
When Two Markets Tango
China’s stock market stands tall—even as Trump keeps swinging.
But don’t get it twisted: this isn’t strength from within. Some say it’s more like Beijing holding up the ceiling with both hands.
There’s growing chatter that China isn’t surviving the storm — it’s staging the weather.
Artificial buying, last-minute rallies, government-backed ETFs? Yeah, it’s giving “controlled chaos.”
Meanwhile, in the U.S., you get the sense Trump and crew would short the whole thing if they could. It’s like every uptick annoys them personally.
Two countries. Two playbooks.
One’s bracing the market with wires and tape.
The other? Just yelling at it from Twitter.
Wild times. Totally different vibes.
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