Will Shale Oil Decide the 2024 U.S. President ? – Why Pennsylvania Holds the Key…

(feat. Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris, Swing State, Election)

1. In the latest CNN poll, the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has narrowed to just 1 percentage point

2. However, averaging various polls shows Harris still leading Trump by 2.8 percentage point.

3. In truth, national polls don’t mean much in U.S. presidential elections.

4. Unlike some other countries where every vote counts equally, the U.S. has a state-by-state election system.

5. Winning by just one vote in a state gives a candidate all of that state’s electoral votes (aka “winner-takes-all” system)

6. Just like some regions always vote the same way, certain U.S. states are loyal to one party.

7. In U.S. elections, a candidate needs 270 or more electoral votes to win (aka the “magic number”).

8. Right now at this point, Harris starts with 226 electoral votes, while Trump has 219.

9. That means Harris has a 7-vote head start going into the election.

10. But the real battle is over 93 electoral votes from seven key “Swing States.”

11. These seven states are Pennsylvania (19), North Carolina (16), Georgia (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10), and Nevada (6).

12. Trump is currently winning in three of these battleground states.

13. Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, with a total of 43 electoral votes.

14. Adding those 43 votes to his base gives Trump 262 electoral votes.

15. Trump only needs 8 more electoral votes to win the presidency.

16. The key state is Pennsylvania, with its 19 electoral votes.

17. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, he’ll have 281 electoral votes, securing the presidency.

18. Even if Harris flips Arizona, Trump would still win with exactly 270 electoral votes.

19. Right now, Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 1.3 percentage points.

20. But Pennsylvania is the state where Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 48.9% of the vote.

21. In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by a slim margin, beating Trump by just over 10,000 votes.

22. Pennsylvania has a history of swing back and forth, making it a tough state for Democrats.

23. This year, Pennsylvania voters are especially focused on “Shale oil.”

24. In August 1859, the world’s first commercial oil well was drilled in Titusville, Pennsylvania, and oil has remained a major industry in the state ever since.

25. Over 200,000 farmers in Pennsylvania lease their land to oil companies, earning royalties.

26. More than 120,000 people in the state are directly employed by the oil industry.

27. In the 2020 election, 6.6 million Pennsylvanians cast their votes, with 320,000 working directly in oil-related jobs.

28. Including families and others who rely on the oil industry for their livelihood, it’s estimated that up to a million votes could be influenced by this sector.

29. Right now, the hot topic in Pennsylvania is the use of fracking to extract Shale Oil.

30. Shale Oil gained attention in 2011 when oil prices surged to $120 per barrel.

31. Shale oil contains both oil and natural gas, but it’s not stored in large underground reservoirs like traditional oil.

32. The oil and gas are trapped in rock. To extract them, water, chemicals, and sand are blasted into the rock at high pressure to create cracks.

33. This method, known as Fracking (hydraulic fracturing), allows the oil and gas to flow through the cracks and be collected.

34. Fracking raises environmental concerns because the chemicals used can contaminate groundwater.

35. Fracking can also cause small earthquakes by breaking up underground rock.

36. Harris struggles to fully support fracking because of concerns from her environmentally-focused Democratic base.

37. But if she speaks out strongly against fracking, she risks losing support in Pennsylvania.

38. The real issue right now isn’t just regular fracking, but how Harris will respond to Re-fracking.

39. When oil prices crashed during the Covid-19 pandemic, many shale oil companies went bankrupt.

40. The number of active shale rings in the U.S. dropped from 1,757 to just 244 during that time.

41. In the summer of 2022, when oil prices surged again, shale companies began to restarting production.

42. Experts thought shale oil production would stay low because companies weren’t expanding their drilling operations.

43. But by 2023, U.S. Shale oil production had jumped from 9.92 million barrels per day in 2021 to 12.26 million barrels per day.

44. Shape companies were able to increase production quickly by using re-fracking and new drilling techniques.

45. Re-fracking uses new methods to get more oil from wells that were already drilled in the past.

46. The biggest difference between old fracking and re-fracking is the “length of the horizontal drilling pipes.”

47. The pipes used in horizontal drilling grown longer, allowing oil to be extracted from a wider area.

48. In 2015, the average length of these pipes was 1.6 km, but new technology has extended that to 3 km.

49. Another big improvement is the number of fracking points, or holes, used per well.

50. The number of holes has increased from 4 to 12, speeding up the rate of oil extraction.

51. Even though material and labor costs have risen, these new methods have made extracting more “efficient”.

52. As a result, the breakeven price(BEP) for shale oil has dropped to around $40 per barrel.

53. These new technologies also meet the stricter environmental regulations introduced under the Biden administration.

54. Under the Biden administration, environmental regulations have tightened, making it harder to drill new wells.

55. However, there are many existing wells that were sealed after their initial shale oil extraction.

56. By reopening these sealed wells and using re-fracking, companies can extract more than double the oil and gas they did the first time.

57. It’s like squeezing extra juice from an already-squeezed lemon—the second round can still give a lot.

58. If re-fracking expands beyond the current 2% of U.S. wells, it could help the U.S. meet a large share of global oil demand.

59. Many voters in Pennsylvania are banking on re-fracking to revive their local economy.

60. Reopening closed wells could bring back jobs and give farmers rental income from leasing their land to oil companies.

61. The issue centres on Harris.

62. During a recent 2024 presidential debate, ABC moderator David Muir asked her directly about her stance on banning fracking.

63. In response, Kamala Harris firmly stated, “My values haven’t changed.”

64. if her values haven’t changed, this likely means her concerns about fracking haven’t changed changed.

65. Harris quickly followed up with another statement.

66. She said, “I have never banned fracking as Vice President,” meaning that although she’s critical of fracking, she hasn’t pushed for a ban.

67. Her response suggests that even as President, she may not ban fracking but could still enforce tougher regulations.

68. For workers in Pennsylvania’s oil industry, Harris’s answer didn’t offer much reassurance.

69. Many worry that while fracking may continue for now, stricter rules could come after the election.

70. How Donald Trump handles this issue could have a big impact on voter sentiment in Pennsylvania and possibly the entire election.

One-Liner Comment

The U.S. election hinges on Pennsylvania, and Harris’s stance on fracking could tip the scales. While she’s leading in the polls, the race is far from over—Trump may still pull off another upset, just like he did against Hillary in 2016.